Scenario Planning with Monte Carlo

Fortune-Telling for Parcel Nerds - Using Monte Carlo simulations to predict market growth with 95% accuracy during COVID uncertainty.

Scenario Planning with Monte Carlo – "Fortune-Telling for Parcel Nerds"

Backdrop

COVID hit. Parcel volumes went boom. Execs asked, "How crazy will this market get?" Cue four months of crystal-ball work.

How We Peered into the Future

  1. Storyboarding four shock factors: economy, tech, regulation, competition.
  2. Quantifying each story with data—GDP, e-commerce penetration, gig-law drafts, drone rumors.
  3. Monte Carlo Simulator – 10,000 dice rolls later, we had probability curves instead of hand-wavy guesses.

Punchline

Twelve months on, actual market growth landed within 5% of the model's mean. (My ego is still intolerable at parties.)

Value to You

Swap panic with probabilities; budget with a seatbelt on.